Future Outlook: Projected Revenue and User Penetration in the E-Commerce Sector

The e-commerce sector is projected to experience strong growth in revenue and user penetration over the coming years, with market size estimates reaching between approximately USD 9.4 billion to USD 28.9 billion by 2030, depending on the source and scope considered.

Key projections include:

• Market Revenue Growth:

  • One forecast expects the e-commerce market to grow from about USD 17.6 billion in 2024 to USD 28.9 billion by 2030, representing an 8% compound annual growth rate (CAGR).
  • Another source projects a market size of USD 5.57 billion in 2025 growing at an 11% CAGR to USD 9.39 billion by 2030.
  • A related estimate for 2024 is USD 8.54 billion, with expected growth of 10-15% in 2025 to reach USD 9.39-9.82 billion.

• User Penetration and Market Composition:

  • E-commerce penetration as a share of total retail is increasing steadily, with online retail penetration rising from 9% in 2021 to 11% in 2022, and expected to continue growing at a CAGR of at least 16% over the next five years in the broader region.
  • Social commerce, including live commerce, is a rapidly growing segment, forecasted to reach USD 3.17 billion by 2025 and grow at a 15.6% CAGR from 2025 to 2030, making up roughly one-third of the overall e-commerce market.
  • Digital wallets are becoming the dominant payment method, accounting for over half (53%) of global e-commerce transaction value in 2024 and expected to rise to 65% by 2030, reflecting increasing digital payment adoption.

• Market Drivers and Trends:

  • The rise of live commerce, which combines live streaming with direct sales, is significantly boosting conversion rates and consumer engagement.
  • Mobile and digital payment adoption continue to accelerate, supporting seamless and efficient online shopping experiences.

In summary, the e-commerce sector is on a robust growth trajectory, with revenues expected to nearly double or more by 2030, driven by increasing user adoption, digital payment integration, and innovative commerce formats like live commerce. User penetration and market share of e-commerce within total retail sales are also projected to rise substantially over the next decade.